In our Q1 2025 Report, we examine how market volatility, rising tariffs, and global policy shifts influence investor decision-making, and how Tall Oak strategies are evolving in response. From rethinking retirement timing to navigating a shifting trade order, we remain focused on clarity, resilience, and disciplined investing.
At a glance:
Advisory Highlight – Rethinking Retirement
- Many Canadians are reconsidering retirement timing amid economic uncertainty.
- Our Retirement VIEW Plan stress-tests retirement success through Monte Carlo simulations, targeting a 95% confidence rate.
- Tall Oak’s three-pillar approach — tail-risk hedging, global diversification, and disciplined security selection — ensures client plans can adapt to changing markets.
Market Review
- U.S. markets began strong but reversed sharply on tariff concerns, with the Nasdaq down over 15% from its peak.
- Canadian markets were more resilient, supported by stronger than expected GDP growth and energy sector gains.
- Europe outperformed the U.S. for the first time in over 30 years; Asia showed stable growth amid trade tensions.
Investment Theme – Tariffs & Deglobalization
- The introduction of the “Liberation Day” tariffs marks a structural shift toward economic nationalism and strategic trade.
- Global supply chains are becoming more regionalized, and inflationary pressure is rising in strategic sectors.
- Our investment strategy is built for transition: focused on resilience, not prediction.
Portfolio Highlights
- MercadoLibre (MELI): A standout in Latin America, MELI offers insulation from U.S.-China trade risks and supports our global diversification thesis.
- AQR Apex Fund: A multi-strategy alternative that has delivered steady returns even during equity and bond volatility.
Tall Oak Pooled Funds
- Capital Appreciation Pool: Designed for long-term growth, with holdings in high-quality, globally diversified equities, fixed income, and alternatives.
- Diversified Income Pool: Focused on reliable income from dividend-paying equities, fixed income, and alternatives, supporting capital preservation.
The views expressed in this commentary are those of Tall Oak Capital Advisors as at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This commentary is presented only as a general source of information and is not intended as a solicitation to buy or sell specific investments, nor is it intended to provide tax or legal advice. Statistics, factual data and other information are from sources Tall Oak believes to be reliable but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This commentary is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Tall Oak Capital Advisors are registered. Securities-related products and services are offered through Raymond James Correspondent Services Ltd., member Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Insurance products and services are offered through Gryphin Advantage Inc., which is not a member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This commentary may provide links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users. Tall Oak Capital Advisors is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites, nor does Tall Oak Capital Advisors endorse, warrant or guarantee the products, services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites. Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same Privacy Policy which Tall Oak Capital Advisors adheres to.
